WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

A Delicate Balance Amidst Economic Signals

MONDAY, September 4, 2023 BY VINCENT DAVID-ROBIN

As we wrap up another week in the financial markets, it's apparent that equities have maintained a relatively flat trajectory, punctuated by some notable daily fluctuations. While the overall tone in the markets may seem stable, the underlying economic indicators and central bank sentiments are anything but straightforward.


US Employment Numbers and the Goldilocks Scenario

The past week witnessed slightly weaker employment numbers in the United States, as reflected in the Jolts (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), ADP (Automatic Data Processing), and NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) reports. This has given rise to a narrative that the economy might be gently slowing down, underscored by a modest uptick in the unemployment rate, which moved from 3.6% to 3.8%. The prevailing theory is that the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, may interpret these figures as a positive sign and choose not to further increase interest rates. In other words, a "Goldilocks scenario" where economic conditions are just right.

However, it's important to note that not all members of the Federal Reserve share this optimism. Susan Collins, the Head of the Boston Federal Reserve, expressed a differing view, suggesting that the Fed may need to take additional measures in response to the evolving economic landscape.


Lingering Concerns: Inflation and Oil Prices

Two persistent concerns continue to cast a shadow over the markets. First, inflation has not shown significant signs of receding, maintaining its presence as a key economic theme. Second, oil prices are on the rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil clearly breaching the USD 80 per barrel mark, currently settling at $84. The swift fluctuations in oil prices have an immediate and tangible impact on headline inflation levels, making this a crucial factor to monitor in the coming weeks.

These concerns have been reflected in the fixed US income markets, where yields reached new highs. This led to a notable sell-off in long-dated bonds. The yield differential between the United States and Europe has contributed to the strengthening of the US Dollar against major currencies like the Euro, Sterling, and Renminbi.


European Economic Landscape

Turning our attention to Europe, inflation data across the Eurozone remained robust at 5.3%. However, there's a darker cloud looming over the continent as manufacturing continues to weaken. In comparison to the United States, the European economic landscape appears bleaker, which helps explain the slight underperformance of European equity markets observed last week.

General disclosure:This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Aria Capital Management or any of its related companies to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

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