Market Pulse: Mid-April 2024 Recap

By mid-April 2024, the stock market began to show signs of unease, marking a shift from the positive start to the month. Several factors contributed to this growing volatility.

Market on Edge: Major indices experienced some early gains but faced downward pressure by mid-April. A digestion has been expected for some time.

Hotter Retail Sales: Inflation and consumer data, having come in hotter than expected, has pushed back expectations for rate cuts in June, causing many markets to fall in the order of 2%.

Sector Performance (as of Mid-April):

Early Losers: Real Estate and Communication Services have been among the worst-performing sectors, with some measures dropping by over 4% each. Rising interest rates may have dampened investor enthusiasm for real estate investments, being the most interest rate sensitive of equity sectors.

Bright Spots: Consumer Staples have been a rare bright spot, unsurprising given the lengthy period of underperformance that defensive sectors have seen.

Geopolitical and Central Bank Updates (as of Mid-April):

Geopolitical Tensions Flare Up: Renewed tensions between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East have caused increased market anxiety. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies also contributes to inflationary concerns.

Central Banker Equivocate: Having set the scene for interest rate cuts, some monetary policy officials have been forced to admit easier policy is likely delayed given the continued strength of economic data.

Market Movers

Geopolitical Conflict Erupts: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalating could have triggered a sell-off across riskier assets, including equities.

Inflation Concerns Resurface: Disappointing inflation data releases in the US and other major economies could have fuelled worries about persistent inflation, leading to a potential flight to safe-haven assets like bonds.

Other Asset Classes

Fixed Income: Bond yields could have risen noticeably as investors sought the safety of fixed-income instruments. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might have climbed towards 4.4%.

FX Markets: In line with higher US rate markets, the US Dollar has appreciated in sympathy.

Commodities: Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, global commodity prices plummeted by nearly 40%. This helped to drive most of the roughly 2-percentage-point reduction in global inflation between 2022 and 2023. Since mid-2023, however, the World Bank’s index of commodity prices has remained essentially unchanged.

Precious Metals: Unlike March, gold so far in April has finished off its intra-month high from probable buyer reticence and profit-taking – reflected in falling Chinese premia, lower Indian imports and flat-lining COMEX positioning.


“Immaculate disinflation” persists in the US economy and is likely to persist into 2H24. Incremental evidence of “sticky inflation” supports our view that the “last mile” of disinflation required for the Fed to achieve its price stability mandate will be difficult to traverse in the absence of a recession.

General disclosure:This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Aria Capital Management or any of its related companies to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.


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