Market Pulse: 15th February 2024

Month to date markets have witnessed a positive sentiment globally, led by Japan shares:

Market Performance Highlights

US Markets: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.97%, the S&P 500 climbed 3.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite achieved an all-time high, surging by 4.14%.

European Markets: Major European indices like the FTSE 100 (UK) and DAX (Germany) also experienced gains, ranging from 2% to 3.5%.

Asian Markets: Asian markets followed suit, with regional variations. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.8%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 4.2%. Southeast Asian markets like Singapore's Straits Times Index and Thailand's SET Index also saw positive growth, ranging from 1% to 2.5%.

Emerging Markets: Emerging markets, including Brazil's Bovespa and India's Nifty 50, generally performed well, with gains exceeding 3% on average.


Sector Leaders and Laggards

Technology Continues to Lead: The Technology sector emerged as a global leader, with strong gains across all major markets. Investor enthusiasm for innovation and artificial intelligence fuelled the sentiment.

Energy Rebounds: The Energy sector witnessed a significant turnaround after a sluggish January. Rebounding oil prices due to production cuts and increased global demand lifted energy stocks across the board.

Mixed Performance in Other Sectors: Other sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Materials exhibited mixed performance, with some regional variations.


Geopolitical Events and Central Bank News

Geopolitical Landscape: While tensions remained in some regions, no major geopolitical incidents significantly disrupted financial markets in February.

Central Bank Dovishness: Central banks across major economies, including the US Federal Reserve, adopted a more dovish stance. Acknowledging progress on inflation control, they signalled a potential slowdown in the pace of future interest rate hikes. This dovish stance from central banks significantly influenced market sentiment


Market Movers

FOMC Policy Statements: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes revealed a more cautious approach to future rate hikes, triggering a rally in global equity markets.

Strong Earnings Reports: Several major companies across various sectors exceeded analyst expectations in their quarterly earnings reports, boosting investor confidence globally.

Truth Will Out: The SEC cleared the way for Donald Trumps ‘Truth’ social media platform to merge with a blank cheque SPAC company, which gives a 10bn USD valuation at initial listing.

Fixed Income: Bond yields experienced a moderate rise globally as the market anticipated a potential slowdown in interest rate cuts. The US 10-year Treasury yield still trades around above 4%.

Currencies: The US Dollar remained relatively stable against major currencies after initial fluctuations triggered by the Fed's policy signals. However, some emerging market currencies experienced slight appreciation against the USD.

Commodities: Overall commodity prices saw a modest increase. Oil prices rebounded significantly, while agricultural commodities like wheat, corn, and soybeans remain soggy as Russia and Ukraine exports continue to provide discounted supply.

Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuated throughout the month, ultimately ending February slightly lower than January. Silver prices followed a similar pattern.

Overall

Commodities continue to base. US consumer resilience, a global capex boom (Japanese resurgence, data centres and energy transition infrastructure) provides certain ballast. Should the Chinese central bank begin major stimulus programs to kickstart the economy, commodities could accelerate as that liquidity finds its way into the system.

General disclosure:This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Aria Capital Management or any of its related companies to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. Past performance does not guarantee future results. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

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